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Cerebral
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 Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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Carlton have a pretty good chance at making 4th spot, as long as the Bulldogs lose their last two and we beat Melbourne and Adelaide. It'd be a good get, don't want to play Essendon Round 1 of the finals >_>
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rimram
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| Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:37 pm Post subject: |
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4th will come down to Adelaide vs. Carlton I think... unless Bulldogs beat Geelong, which is unlikely IMO
If WCE could beat Essendon at home I'm sure we can. 
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sobriquet835
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| Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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| rimram wrote: | 4th will come down to Adelaide vs. Carlton I think... unless Bulldogs beat Geelong, which is unlikely IMO
If WCE could beat Essendon at home I'm sure we can. |
We (the dogs) only have to win one of the final two games to win fourth spot. And we've already proven we can beat Geelong at full strength, with a little luck. Geelong is not currently at full strength, so we're a good chance this weekend. Same against Collingwood. Adelaide is on shaky ground. Carlton should beat adelaide round 22. Carlton finish 5th, Brisbane 6th, I think. Brisbane should beat Port and Sydney to pick up 5th. Dogs will finish 4th, or maybe 3rd if they beat collingwood and pick up percentage. It's less than 1 percent between dogs and Pies. That could go either way, really.
Also good to see we signed up all our young talent over the last week, including Ward and Higgins. I think even if Aker retires, our premiership window will open a little further next year.Just need to re-sign Lake.
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DancesInUnderwear
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| Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 12:03 am Post subject: |
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| Cro wrote: | | You'd be hard pressed to find too many Saints fans that care about the loss. Especially three days later... |
Jeez, somebody is getting defensive.
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Fly
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| Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 4:45 pm Post subject: |
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| DancesInUnderwear wrote: | | Cro wrote: | | You'd be hard pressed to find too many Saints fans that care about the loss. Especially three days later... |
Jeez, somebody is getting defensive. |
No team has gone 22-0 in a single season, Collingwoods perfect season was 18 rounds, Geelongs 23-0 was including finals and the previous best of a St Kilda team was the previous "Winning Streak" which this year has bested by a long way.
Then you have the media reports (Lyon stating that he did didly squat and wanted to see who stood up and wanted to play) and injuries (Dempsey and Ryder for Essendon, none for us) and the fact that we still had a chance to pinch the win, why would we care now?
One week at a time, this week it's North Melbourne on the back of Shannon Watts farewell game and Brady Rawlings 200th (250th? Bah I dunno definitely a milestone though) and we see if last week as a blip in the radar or if we're being too precious in terms of not going hard enough because of injuries, peaked too early, etc.
Cro is largely right that we simply don't care at this point because we cannot afford to. If we worry what Essendon (who can only finish something like 7th to 12th) are doing while we simply need to win one more game to ensure top spot from Geelong we'll limp into finals since our focus is wrong.
Instead, we hope to grind North Melbourne into the turf and go 20-1.
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Cro
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| Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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| DancesInUnderwear wrote: | | Cro wrote: | | You'd be hard pressed to find too many Saints fans that care about the loss. Especially three days later... |
Jeez, somebody is getting defensive. |
 Why? Because I don't care that we lost a game we deserved to lose? If I had have seen that post in the hour or so after game, yeah I would have cared. Then I thought about it, being undefeated and winning having played that poorly would have been detrimental. Especially this late in the season with our final two games being against two of the worst teams around a feeling of invincibility may have set in. Given the performance losing that game should give them a better chance to win the premiership.
Thus I don't care about the result.
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DancesInUnderwear
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| Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 1:33 am Post subject: |
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Because the Essendon fans do care, and would care all week. As soon as one posted about it, you posted what would appear to be you sooking that they are still going on about it.
Saints certainly wouldn't care, nor should they. But I've never seen a post that looked more sooky than that.
Or, in summary,
"wow, i still can't believe we won"
"yeah, well, why can't you guys just shut up about it already
...
...
..."
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sobriquet835
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| Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 1:46 am Post subject: |
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HAHAHA, I wish I could plus that 5 times.
And Carlton making the four? HA! The dogs have it sewn up now (Top 4 spot, that is). Sigh. We seem to be eternally under-rated. Same as collingwood seem to be eternally over-rated. Bring it on, magpies, 9 days, we'll see.
What a great match though, the Dogs and Geelong. Vengeance is sweet for us supporters. What makes it better is we outplayed Geelong all night. Would've been a bigger margin if not for the 6 posters... we must be close to the record for hitting the post in a season.
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Cro
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| Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2009 2:44 am Post subject: |
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| sobriquet835 wrote: |
Sigh. We seem to be eternally under-rated. |
Well this season they'd done nothing to justify it until the last two weeks. Being close in their previous matches with the Cats n Collingwood is great but it doesn't prove a lot. Huge credit though, the last two weeks they had to go out there and earn 4th and they outplayed both opponents. Top 4 suddenly looks a lot tighter now, if the Dogs can grab third I'd back them to beat Geelong again.
@Dances Nice try... 
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sobriquet835
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| Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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HAHAHA! Kangaroos just beat St Kilda! 2 losses in a row for the saints. Crazy stuff.
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rimram
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| Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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The wheels are falling off.
But hey Cro, it was just a loss you had to have.
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Fly
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| Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 5:07 pm Post subject: |
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Still got 1st place sewn up.
Woo minor premiers!
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Cro
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| Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Fly wrote: | Still got 1st place sewn up.
Woo minor premiers! |
Starting to look like resting half the team was a terrible idea.
Furious at that missed free to Schneider with 3 to go, would hate to see stuff like that missed in the finals also having an impact on results, but again St Kilda were poor today. I can shoot for goal better than that.
The way Riewoldt's going I think every time he marks we need to sub him for a designated kicker. 
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LeonJ
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| Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 11:27 am Post subject: |
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Saints are in BIG trouble. Forget about resting the players week (which was apparently a genius move when they beat the Hawks with the 2nd stringers), they have struggle to beat the bottom teams from then on. Sydney, Essendon and Kangeroos have ALL looked good because of the Saints. In reality they are rubbish. Collingwood and Freo *cough* showed that. What is going to happen when they play a decent team?
Cats are in big trouble too, they are the walking wounded. Dogs and Collingwood have a really good crack this September of making the grand final.
Dogs will rip the Saints to pieces in week 1 of the finals and the Wood will destroy the Cats.
Then the next week you have Adelaide, Lions, Cartlon and probably the Hawks. All GOOD teams. Not good.
If you look at history the teams that come into the finals fit and in good form always go far in September.
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Benc82
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| Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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Honestly I don't think Saints and Geelong have much to worry about form wise. They will come good in the finals, especially Geelong. I guess it's just injuries that will stuff them.
Saints dropping a couple of late games won't do them much harm. But I still reckon Collingwood are a big contender.
Anyway as a West Coast supporter - bring on 2010! 
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sobriquet835
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| Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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| LeonJ wrote: | Saints are in BIG trouble. Forget about resting the players week (which was apparently a genius move when they beat the Hawks with the 2nd stringers), they have struggle to beat the bottom teams from then on. Sydney, Essendon and Kangeroos have ALL looked good because of the Saints. In reality they are rubbish. Collingwood and Freo *cough* showed that. What is going to happen when they play a decent team?
Cats are in big trouble too, they are the walking wounded. Dogs and Collingwood have a really good crack this September of making the grand final.
Dogs will rip the Saints to pieces in week 1 of the finals and the Wood will destroy the Cats.
Then the next week you have Adelaide, Lions, Cartlon and probably the Hawks. All GOOD teams. Not good.
If you look at history the teams that come into the finals fit and in good form always go far in September. |
You can never write the top 2 teams out like that. Both will have good players coming back in, and Finals Footy is a whole different ball game. You would be correct on current form, but everything changes in the finals. The saints in particular will be hungry, and with hunger comes aggressive tackling, usually. That's already one of their strong areas, so I honestly think they'll be hard to stop in the finals series. The dogs are probably second in Full-ground offensive pressure when on their game, so I'm predicting Bulldogs Vs Saint in the GF. Geelong rely more on Silky skills, and collingwood... I'm not sure. Luck maybe? Evenness? They don't have anything that stands out to me. 5-7 have proven, to me anyway, that when the pressure is on, they're still a couple steps behind the top 4 sides. Probably why they finished 5-7. 8th is just there to make up the numbers, Carlton should crush whoever finishes 8th.
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LeonJ
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| Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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I disagree. Saints have had a GOOD year. And yes, their game style is similar to the Swans of old (I'm a Swans support btw).
However, form is important. They have struggled against the comps weakest teams which is bad going into September.
Collingwood were like Sydney when they won the flag, they won 12 of their last 13 games going the final.
Yes, I agree Saints and Cats are STILL going to be good sides. But I'd hate to be a Saints supporter right now. Such a stella year could become all undone at the end.
My prediction, Geelong vs Collingwood final. Saints to get knocked out second week in finals by the Hawks. Wood in the final to choke after dominating most of the game 
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DancesInUnderwear
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| Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:51 pm Post subject: |
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There was a thing in paper on Sunday about how for the past 10 years or whatever it was, every team who won the premiership won at least 3 of their last 4 home and away games. It was being used to suggest Geelong may be shot, but on that formline, Saints are also in trouble.
Saints shouldn't have rested all those players. It utterly fucked over Geelong when they did against the Saints in round 14, and it fucked over the saints now - yes, the B Team win by Saints was great, but when the all stars subbed back in, they look like they thought they were invincible and paid the price for it. At this point, however, they should realise they're not and charge on to the GF. They wont miss it.
The cats, however, will. They're done. Collingwood will beat them week one, and will go on to play the Saints in the GF. Only question for Collingwood is how the young side handles the pressure of now being everyones second bet for the premiership, which could be interesting.
Saints v Pies GF, Bulldogs and Cats out in prelim, Crows and Brisbane out in the semis (crows will beat the blues this week to lock in 5th spot, they're a better side than Carlton), Carlton and whatever place filler is in 8th out the first week.
...unless of course Hawks beat the Bombers, and then Port absolutely smahes the Kangas, and Port sneak in, then it'll be Port in the GF (...yeah, nah, but I could see Port being Crows in the first week if Port somehow snuck in. They don't deserve to, though)
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LeonJ
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| Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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Nah, Saints will be brittle in the finals and the Cats will be fine. I think Cats 100% in the final, Saints in trouble.
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Cro
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| Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 12:01 am Post subject: |
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| LeonJ wrote: | | Nah, Saints will be brittle in the finals and the Cats will be fine. I think Cats 100% in the final, Saints in trouble. |
I don't understand this, Geelong look worse than St Kilda atm and have injuries to key players that will probably keep them from being at their best again this season. Where as St Kilda has the least amount of injuries out of the top 4 sides and has comfortably beaten all the contenders.
I'm waiting for round 22 to be complete before I make prediction but none of the top four sides are going out in straight sets this year, they are clearly better then the rest. Picking who will play in the GF though... fkd if I know. I'm thinking Saints vs Pies, but it's not a sure thing like last year was.
The last two weeks have been really poor, but I'm not to worried yet, after winning 19 straight I can see why you wouldn't care about vs'n lower sides and would just want it to be September. I've been wanting September since they knocked off the Cats. If the killer instinct isn't unleashed on Melbourne this Sunday then I'm shitting myself.
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LeonJ
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| Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:38 am Post subject: |
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Yeah, I've watched all their games and the thing that worries me is that don't ever blow away sides.
I'd love to be in the Saints position instead of missing out on September but if I supported them, I'd certainly be nervous. The problem with the AFL finals is that you have to play another GOOD side first up. I wouldn't want to play the dogs or wood first up. They are two teams in form.
It will be a good finals series though, 7 out of the 8 sides are in form. Maybe we'll have a winner from outside the 8 this year....
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Cro
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| Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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| LeonJ wrote: | Yeah, I've watched all their games and the thing that worries me is that don't ever blow away sides.
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Are you talking about St Kilda here?
The same team that thrashed Collingwood and comfortably beat the Bulldogs twice this season?
I would say St Kilda's biggest weakness is the potential inaccuracy in front of goal, much like Geelong in last year's GF. If St Kilda shot even at 50% on the weekend they would have won the game.
| Quote: | | It will be a good finals series though, 7 out of the 8 sides are in form. Maybe we'll have a winner from outside the 8 this year.... |
Which 7 teams are these? I wouldn't say St Kilda, Geelong or Brisbane (you can't concede 10 in a quarter and be in good form) were in great form atm. Whoever finishes 8th would be in the same boat.
Still not nervous, you have to be damn good to win 19 straight, I can't see this slipping away.
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LeonJ
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| Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 11:37 am Post subject: |
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Doesn't matter how good you are during the year, it's all about finals. A month is a long time in footy. Doesn't matter how many you won in a row if you are in bad form now.
Cartlon, Adelaide and Brisbane are dangerous sides. Not at the same level of the top 4, but still a chance to cause some upsets.
I remember the Port side of old, which won 2 minor premierships. One of those years went out in the second week of the finals (losing to my beloved Swans in the first ).
Be interesting to see how they the Saints against Melbourne on the weekend. I think even if Melbourne are winning they will tank.
Also...Buddy out for 2 weeks. Bombers vs Hawks will be a VERY interesting game. The finals start this week (for them anyway)!
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DancesInUnderwear
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| Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| LeonJ wrote: | | I remember the Port side of old, which won 2 minor premierships. One of those years went out in the second week of the finals (losing to my beloved Swans in the first ). |
Third week, not second. 02 we lost to Collingwood the first week, then beat Essendon, then lost to Brisbane. 03 we lost to Swans, then beat Essendon (again), then lost to Collingwood. We never went out 'in straight sets' from the top 4. I believe the only team to do this in recent years is West Coast in 07, who lost to the Power the first week and I believe it was Collingwood in the second. Ben Cousins went off injured in the game against us though, which is what really hurt them.
Because of all this precedent, I really don't think anyone outside the top 4 will really cause any damage. I'm pretty sure the last team to win it from outside the top 4 was the Crows back in 97/98, but the top 8 was structured differently then anyways.
(I started off posting this just to correct you, but I somehow managed to turn it into somewhat of a cohesive argument. woo)
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WilliamsF1
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| Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| LeonJ wrote: |
Also...Buddy out for 2 weeks. Bombers vs Hawks will be a VERY interesting game. The finals start this week (for them anyway)! |
Whowever wins will have the advantage over their next opponent when you think about it. If the team is hungry to win in an elimination final type scenario, a week extra is good for them.
That said, I would like the Bombers to win, as they're my team. It's been 5years since finals footy was played by the team.
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