PS3 set to outsell Wii by 60%

PS3 News | Suggests analyst.

Developers may love it, and many gamers seem to have already warmed to it, but that won't stop Nintendo's Wii finishing behind Sony's PlayStation 3 in the next-gen battle. That's the view of Yuta Sakurai, leading analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, who has suggested that the PS3 will outsell the Wii by a bulky 60 percent. By 2011, he believes PS3 will have shifted 71 million units, compared to an estimated 40 million units for Wii at the same stage.

Still, it's not all gloom and doom for Nintendo if Sakurai is to be believed - for a start, if his figures do turn out to be correct, it would still mean that Nintendo has made headway into Sony's lead from the current generation of machines. Sakurai also felt the unique appeal of the Wii was attracting game-makers, telling Businessweek that, "Software developers are increasingly interested in creating games for these Nintendo platforms." Nevertheless, his money appears to firmly on Sony's horse, as he rounded off by suggesting, "Hardcore gamers will probably prefer the raw power of PS3. And for all the positive vibes right now, the Wii isn't expected to outsell the PS3."

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71 Comments

Frozencry

5 years ago

^Although I see your point, I think it's argueable on the physics and AI side of things. If the cell processor isn't a monster to code, I think they'd be capable of still creating some neat AI and great physics. I guess we'll see how it all plays out as the Ps3 is finally released.

ghetto92

5 years ago

There's no chance that so many people will choose the PS3 over Wii when the price difference is outrageous. Now i think that with the Wii pricing it will sell short to only the x-box 360 due to the much later release...

Andronicus

5 years ago

What ObsoletE said. *nod*

(What? I haven't said anything in these forums for a while...

)

Jim Dash

5 years ago

The Wii still won't sell the huge numbers PS3 will. PS3 will be around for 10 years. What's the bet Wii will be around for 2? 3?

DancesInUnderwear

5 years ago

I have to disagree with you on both fronts there, Jimmy - I'd predict a 5 year cycle for both.

For starters, I can't see the Wii really flopping, as it'll probably bring in the casual crowd of Singstar, Eyetoy, etc gamers. And if it flopped for new games, I could see Nintendo perhaps conivincing a whole bunch of companies to contribute to the Virtual Console and selling it as a much better version of one of those $20 'classic fun' units you see in Target with Pacman and a bunch of other games that are almost, but not quite, Pacman, packed in with a Pacman shaped controller that doesn't work well for any of them. And even if that doesn't work, Nintendo seem rather arrogant, and are probably likely to try and push it for a while anyway.

PS3, on the other hand, probably won't seem all that powerful in 5-or-so years, and, hell, even if it did, Sony are a company. They want money, so they'll roll out the PS4 with its 80 billion frames per second and people will eat it up again.

Sin Ogaris

5 years ago

Yeah, PS3 won't last 10 years because (judging by trend) the graphics would be laughable compared to what could be possible.

David

5 years ago

People keep saying 'Sure, Wii will win to begin with, but the PS3 will last for longer, so will win in the end'.

I don't buy that. If the Wii outsells the PS3 by any reasonable margin for the first two years, then 3rd parties will abandon any PS3 plans and move t Wii. With no 3rd party games, the PS3 will start to wither, and Sony will begin on the PS4 early.

I don't neccesarily think that will happen, but the only way the PS3 can last for '10 years' is if it gets 90% of the market very quickly, which I do believe is impossible.

Jellyfish

5 years ago

David wrote

and Sony will begin on the PS4 early.

They should be working on the PS4 now. The PS3 to me looks like it was thrown together from a whole bunch of other Sony R&D just after they found out Microsoft were making the Xbox 360.

Microsoft and Nintendo should be doing the same, extra years of development (and experience) show off, Xbox (1-2 years?) verses Xbox 360 (4 years?).

Andronicus

5 years ago

Oops...

I didn't bother to check that the posts in this topic had gone to 3 pages - my last post in this topic was directed at ObsoletE's last comment on page 1 - I should have checked that there had been 2 more pages of posts after that.

Ahem...

Chris-Leigh

5 years ago

David wrote

I don't neccesarily think that will happen, but the only way the PS3 can last for '10 years' is if it gets 90% of the market very quickly, which I do believe is impossible.

Indeed. PLUS PC gaming technology has driven the games console market for about two decades now. One of the aims of consoles originally was to provide a quick-fix, gaming experience that could at least come reasonably close to matching the graphical and audio quality of high-end PC games but for a far lower price. That's arguably why the five-year cycle we see in console gaming became engrained in the first place.

So as someone said above, it's not like the PS3 (or any of the new consoles) is going to break that trend, because PC technology will improve, and yes, in ten years PS3 visuals will look pretty cack. Console manufacturers will respond to that, not leave PS3 on the shelves for a decade.

wobbler

5 years ago

David wrote

But just because Sony will bring out a PS4 doesn't mean that PS3s won't continue to sell. I wouldn't be shocked if the PS2 outsold PS3 for a period after launch (Not for the launch but the months after it). The Wii on the other hand is allready being seen as underpowered for certain games and in a couple of years time more and more developers will have trouble porting games to the wii, which will leave the same few developers supporting nintendo. But having said that, does anyone want Nintendo to even be in the same race as Sony and MS because I thought the whole concept of the Wii was that Nintendo was going to offer something different and not try and compete with the other systems. PS3 will probably have to sell 60% more than the Wii just to make it profitable whereas the Wii will have a much smaller breakeven number.

admeister

5 years ago

"Yeah, PS3 won't last 10 years because (judging by trend) the graphics would be laughable compared to what could be possible."

It's always about the graphics, isn't it? I don't think graphics can get much better than what the PS3 is displaying, I hate to think what they'll be able to do in 10 years time!

There has to be a limit somewhere, doesn't there? I mean, graphics can't keep getting better forever can they? We've got to hit a wall somewhere, that's why branching out into VR style stuff is a good future path, putting the great grpahics to a more immersive use. That's about the only way I can see to improve on our current consoles, which is why I like the Wii, it's a step in that direction, with it's controller. Real-time motion input is a great function.

Sin Ogaris

5 years ago

admeister wrote

We're talking about Sony, of course it's about graphics. Why do you think we even have next generations of consoles? Virtual Reality is a step up in graphical prowess (in a very abstract kind of way).

Jellyfish

5 years ago

Virtual Reality is a long way off yet, even if they do come out soonish they won't be able to handle a vast libary of games a home console can do.

admeister

5 years ago

You'd be surprised, like I said, Nintendo are making a start on it. They have virtual reality sytems running even now, with a bit of work and 10 years time, who knows?

Jellyfish

5 years ago

Nintendo aren't really starting "it", they're just bringing it "mainstream" the basic idea of it has been around since humans have been navigating using the stars

Well personally I believe we'll be using something superior to our current concept of VR anyway. Silicon chips are nearing their limit (individually anyway, why do you think most CPUs are now dual/multi-core?), and quantum computers should be figured out by then and even relatively basic ones can perform mind-numbingly large amounts of calculations per second. However these are still in the lab/research stage (like double-layer BD

) so they won't be out for a while.

But then again like you said, who knows? We could purge the planet of the majority life in hours, and there are a lot of hours in 10 years

admeister

5 years ago

That's for sure, a LOT can happen in that time, especially with how fast things are progressing currently.

I guess you're right, they are bringing it to a mainstream format, but still, it is related to VR.

wobbler

5 years ago

nikack wrote

Virtual Reality is a long way off yet, even if they do come out soonish they won't be able to handle a vast libary of games a home console can do.

VR is starting to make a small comeback as we now have the proccesing power to run these systems.

http://www.metamersion.com/

http://www.emagin.com/products/systems/systems.php

are just 2 systems that have been getting some interest latley. I don't really see the Wii as having anything to do with VR (or you could say a light gun is a VR system) although it might be more immersive than a conventional controller.

Gamesta

5 years ago

Though I will definately be buying a PS3 and probably a Wii I still hope that the PS3 annihilates all the competition just because I'm sick of hearing so many people bashing the PS3.

I prefer nearly all Playstations games over games from the other consoles.
There are a few games on the Wii that I really want to play especialy the new Smash Bros game,Im mostly looking forward to playing as Zero Suit Samus.But I dont really care about any of the 360 games.

Also I don't care about brands I only care about the products.

Jellyfish

5 years ago

wobbler wrote

http://www.metamersion.com/

http://www.emagin.com/products/systems/systems.php

are just 2 systems that have been getting some interest latley. I don't really see the Wii as having anything to do with VR (or you could say a light gun is a VR system) although it might be more immersive than a conventional controller.

Still the graphics are shockingly poor. Even though the Russian designed one looks pretty good, you've got to play inside a big metal ball/cage, so space and mobility are still issues yet to be covered.

Sin Ogaris

5 years ago

Is Metamersion the one that they were running Half-Life 2 in?

admeister

5 years ago

Metamersion are pretty cool, they're doing a fairly good job. Imagine the Wii controller as a simplified version of having motion capture in a futuristic VR suit, which reeives feedback form all the parts of your body. The Wii controller allows one part of you body to completely interact with the games that you're playing, sort of like it's just one part of that suit. I think its a start, integrating one body part is the first step to integrating others, in the future, real time style.

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