PS3 set to outsell Wii by 60%

PS3 News | Suggests analyst.

Developers may love it, and many gamers seem to have already warmed to it, but that won't stop Nintendo's Wii finishing behind Sony's PlayStation 3 in the next-gen battle. That's the view of Yuta Sakurai, leading analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, who has suggested that the PS3 will outsell the Wii by a bulky 60 percent. By 2011, he believes PS3 will have shifted 71 million units, compared to an estimated 40 million units for Wii at the same stage.

Still, it's not all gloom and doom for Nintendo if Sakurai is to be believed - for a start, if his figures do turn out to be correct, it would still mean that Nintendo has made headway into Sony's lead from the current generation of machines. Sakurai also felt the unique appeal of the Wii was attracting game-makers, telling Businessweek that, "Software developers are increasingly interested in creating games for these Nintendo platforms." Nevertheless, his money appears to firmly on Sony's horse, as he rounded off by suggesting, "Hardcore gamers will probably prefer the raw power of PS3. And for all the positive vibes right now, the Wii isn't expected to outsell the PS3."

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71 Comments

David

5 years ago

ObsoletE wrote

^ whatever Sony are paying you, they're getting their money's worth.

LOLed etc.

Frozencry

5 years ago

nikack wrote

Swap those figures around and I'd believe it. I think the Wii will dominate the Japanese and possibly the Australian (we sure love those whacky games) markets.

The first wave of the PS3 juggernaught will sell out definately. But I'm thinking quite a few of those units will be defective due to the complexitivity of system and the extreme heat here. This will probably make the news considering the price of the console and reflect negatively on the console sales.

The Xbox 360 is also untested in our summer, but it seems like they're surviving the "Heat Wave" in North America and Europe.

A couple of defective consoles will barely dent the armour of PS3 IMO. It is expected of minor problems like that with launches, and I highly doubt it will cause a stir.

Anyway, I never believe analysts, they're usually just payed to take random guesses, and be called 'experts'. We'll see by launch of both consoles which will fare better. Personally, I say bring them both on, they have a space reserved for them in my room.

Joseph

5 years ago

Okay, it dosen't come down to what anaylists predict. It comes down to software. The GCN was selling nicely at launch, but sales fell through due to a lack of softwear early on in the console's life. This could happen with Wii or PS3 or both! Don't rule out anything, both can out do the other given the right circumstances. Wait and see.

mysterymarty

5 years ago

this articles is incorrect. all this article show is that he is a sony fan. the fact is that nintendo will defernatly sell because it is made for game play to make the games more fun.

mysterymarty

5 years ago

i agree that the PS3 will sell no where near that amout.
the only reason the playstation have sold is that it is a very well known brand.(Sony)

5 years ago

Majority of posts I have read are in favour of buying a Wii - hands down. It's fun, it's different, it's got lots of exclusives, it's affordable... Most of the interviews with developers also only have positive things to say about DS & the Wii.

For those posts that are in favour of PS3, most point to the perceived "Graphics Power" as being the most significant benefit.

If CPU & Graphics power is important - Mid range PC's can match PS3 now, within 18 months entry spec systems will walk all over it. Sony is saying PS3 is a 10 year term - I don't think that consumers will be happy with that. PC's in 4 to 5 years will make PS3 look like... well the same as todays PC's make PS2's look low tech.

If graphics was such a big deal GC would have killed PS2 - I'm not getting into an argument but I'm confident owning both consoles that the GC is far and away more powerful. Am I wrong? I think GXC failed because they did not have the number of titles to draw in the masses and there was a perception problem with GC as toy like - This time, with profits flowing with DS software, and the ease of the Wii as a platform, developers are happy to jump ship to stay alive. I don't count the support being behind PS3 this time...

mysterymarty

5 years ago

i agree with cookie he is absolutly right. this time Nintendo has a masive list of games including 3rd parties titles like brother's in arms.
Nintendo has research into why they failed and solved these problems.

5 years ago

Chris-Leigh wrote

Well, it's SHIPPED 103m. And I can't quite see there being 32m still on shelves, soooo....

All I hear from Sony is this rattle about shipping 100 million units every tiome that Kaz opens his mouth.

I'm on my third replacement. Have had: SCPH-30002 R (Version 4) then SCPH-50002 (Version 9), now the new slim model (and I'm told that's a mistake...). But forget that, because I'm probably heavy handed – I burned through 2 x PSX (although I'm still on #1 GC, #2 DC, #1 N64, #1 Saturn, #1 SNES) ... Sooooo I'll qualify my opinion that Sony Playstation 2 is unreliable with (A) the number of Google hits on the subject versus any other console, (B) the fact that there have been 2 x Class Actions taken out against Sony for this very subject!!!!!! (3) The unit shipments of the top selling software titles are out of scale with Console shipment. They come no where close to 20 million let alone 100 million... Funny that hey?

100 million units shipped does not equal 100 million users.

While we are on the subject of expensive consoles and undesirable levels of reliability...
I'm curious, anyone know the warranty of the AU$1000 PS3 will be?
Anyone know what a replacement Blow ray drive will cost?

http://palgn.com.au/images/smiles/icon_wink.gif
Wink

mysterymarty

5 years ago

my guess is that to replace a blue ray disc drive would nearly cost you around $500. the dvd playes in japan last i look was around $600 AU.

Frozencry

5 years ago

mysterymarty wrote

this articles is incorrect. all this article show is that he is a sony fan. the fact is that nintendo will defernatly sell because it is made for game play to make the games more fun.

And suddenly you speaking that way doesn't show you're completely biased towards nintendo? And besides, have you played the Wii? Do you know it's fun to use?

Honestly, come up with a 'justified' response to your posts, and maybe then people won't bother you.

Infested Jibbs

5 years ago

Cookie raises a good point about consoles sold........i mean......if the avg user has to buy 2-3 of them over an avg 5-7 yr period........shipped sonsoles/sold consoles whatever don't mean sh!t.

chriharr

5 years ago

Wii will outsell PS3 this time round, Nintendo have won this time round

wobbler

5 years ago

OMG how to stir up a hornets nest!

"Imagine the PS3 is $500 and PSP is $200 (possibility in 2009), it will sell like MADDDD." I hope the PS3 is going to be cheaper than $500 by 2009 or I might have to wait untill 2011 to get one (unless inflation continues to rise like it is.... bloody banannas).

I do think that there is a big chance that PS3 will outsell the Wii by 60% in the long run but in the short term, who knows what the ratio will be (alot closer me thinks). Sony has only just this year stopped producing PSOne and would stretch the life out of the PS3 to 2011 where as I doubt Nintendo will still be trying to sell the Wii in 2011 and would have jumped on the HD bandwagon by then. So all of the arguments over the merits of getting each console at launch really has little to do with how many units are shipped by 2011.

As far as graphics go, yes the PC will have overtaken all of the consoles by the end of next year when the 2nd generation DX10 cards start coming out ( the 360 has basically a prototype DX10 card powering it) but that is not the sole reason for buying any system be it console or PC ( but thats a whole topic in itself).

mysterymarty

5 years ago

Frozencry wrote

mysterymarty wrote

this articles is incorrect. all this article show is that he is a sony fan. the fact is that nintendo will defernatly sell because it is made for game play to make the games more fun.

my post was a response to cokies queston about how much it would cost to replace a blue ray drive in the PS3.

Frozencry

5 years ago

mysterymarty wrote

Frozencry wrote

mysterymarty wrote

this articles is incorrect. all this article show is that he is a sony fan. the fact is that nintendo will defernatly sell because it is made for game play to make the games more fun.

my post was a response to cokies queston about how much it would cost to replace a blue ray drive in the PS3.

That was your other post, the post that I quoted however, only shows your blatant bias.

Spanca

5 years ago

^ Never mind him, Chriharr has spoken. Apparently the word is that Nintendo have already won. Further argument/discussion is futile.

Jim Dash

5 years ago

chriharr wrote

Wii will outsell PS3 this time round, Nintendo have won this time round

Well it's all over then. Have you contacted Sony about their loss? About their departure from the console 'wars', in which Nintendo is non-existant at the moment?

Of course you'll find the most complaints with the PS2, how long has it been out and how many people have them? EVERY SINGLE ONE of my friends has one.

For what reason will developers not back the PS3? There is absolutely no justified reason, at all. PS2 has been developer's fave for years, why would they jump ship?

Just because wii is praised and is receiving alot of support doesn't mean they won't be supporting PS3.

WTF is with these youngun fanboys?

Frozencry

5 years ago

Spanca wrote

^ Never mind him, Chriharr has spoken. Apparently the word is that Nintendo have already won. Further argument/discussion is futile.

True, and now that I know PS3 is going to fail, I may as well kill myself because the $1000 pre-order I put in is not refundable. Curse these people who are capable of seeing the future!

LeonJ

5 years ago

mqphu1 wrote

I can see why MANY analyses are predicting the PS3 will be the eventual winner.
Sony PS3 is equipt with the latest technology and graphics.
They plan ahead unlike MS and Nintendo.
This means the PS3 lifespan is longer and better games.

If you compared the PSP and DS.
Again, IMO the PSP will eventually be the winner (as predicting by experts). Why?
Because Sony has many plans for it in coming years.
- Easy access download of updates, demos, video and audio.
- More games and Arcades games
- Location free player
- Conectivity the PS3
- and MORE

The ONLY barrier with the PS3 and PSP are the priceeeeeeeee.

Imagine the PS3 is $500 and PSP is $200 (possibility in 2009), it will sell like MADDDD.

A) How is Sony planning ahead? They are struggling to hit November. I'm pretty sure they wanted to launch Q1 this year but Blue Ray format stuffed them up. Nothing is proven for the PS3 yet and I really don't think it will be anymore then 1.5 times more powerful then the 360. Your basically paying a high premium for the Blue Ray.

B) Earth to Sony dude. PSP is pretty cheap now and it's not really selling any better (and there is about a million of them on Ebay). Sure it's a better overall machine, but it's not very designed and has no really decent games. Oh and the conectivity the PS3, can't wait to be able to use my PSP has a rear mirror with the PS3. Good stuff. Flip side, thinking DS-Wii conectivity will actually have brillant applications.

EDIT - Typo.

Jellyfish

5 years ago

leonmc wrote

Nothing is proven for the PS3 yet and I really don't think it will be anymore then 1.5 times more powerful then the 360.

If anything the Xbox 360 will be more power than the PS3. BUT the PS3 can churn out prettier graphics than the 360 can (256 MB of dedicated VRAM and 6 baby proccessors in addition to the graphics adapter).

However arguing about power is moot, because if everything depending on the power, the Gamecube should of won this generation, which it didn't.

Frozencry

5 years ago

nikack wrote

leonmc wrote

Nothing is proven for the PS3 yet and I really don't think it will be anymore then 1.5 times more powerful then the 360.

Gamecube of what I recall was weakest through technical specs, but it's architecture allowed it to be manipulated to a very good extent.

Arguing on whether or not 360 is weaker than ps3 is stupid. Technically, Ps3 has alot more horsepower than a 360, however if the architecture is difficult to handle, then we may not see anything great until later in its years. IMO, 360 will start to pale a little (would still look great though) as developers become more adept at ps3 hardware, however we won't see any ridiculously big differences. That's my thought on it anyway.

But aside from the pointless 'power' arguing, We will truly see what ps3 can do once it is released, and then can we make a proper judgement. For now It's just speculation.

Jellyfish

5 years ago

Frozencry wrote

Technically, Ps3 has alot more horsepower than a 360, however if the architecture is difficult to handle, then we may not see anything great until later in its years.

The Cell has horsepower, but not much of it can be applied to game code. It was designed for multimedia processing rather than general processing. Which is probably why Sony have been saying it's everything else first then a games console to save their own butts.

Frozencry

5 years ago

nikack wrote

Frozencry wrote

Technically, Ps3 has alot more horsepower than a 360, however if the architecture is difficult to handle, then we may not see anything great until later in its years.

Cell is a processor, and processors are used for general purposes. Processing power is essential to dish out more things on the screen without lag. If the Cell is utilized correctly and programmed right, then I think they'd be able to dish alot of things out at once. And if I recall, multimedia is a generalization of sound, visual effects, etc, so if that is the case that it were designed specifically as a multimedia processor, wouldn't the games benefit because they are a form of multimedia, and require processing of the visual components, etc?

Jim Dash

5 years ago

I'd say once developers are familiar with the 360 and PS3, they will be making games to the 360's full potential, and then adding all the extras they can into the PS3 version.

Or vice versa.

Jellyfish

5 years ago

Frozencry wrote

My brain's a bit mush right now. But I'll try to explain anyway. The current (non-PS3) uses for the Cell chip are in computers designed for high demand encoding/decoding/streaming of video streams such as CAT/MRI scans for medical equipment. Audio and (pre-rendered) video are what I meant by multimedia. While games use some multimedia type stuff, other things like AI, Physics and interaction data are also included.

The SPEs are a great idea, and could possibly be used to great effect in say, Metal Gear Solid 4. For four way full motion video Codec conversations, or in games with things like the Cross-Com in GRAW.

While the PS3 has strengths in being able to do all these things, it's going to struggle with AI and Physics code.

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