PS3 set to outsell Wii by 60%

PS3 News | Suggests analyst.

Developers may love it, and many gamers seem to have already warmed to it, but that won't stop Nintendo's Wii finishing behind Sony's PlayStation 3 in the next-gen battle. That's the view of Yuta Sakurai, leading analyst at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, who has suggested that the PS3 will outsell the Wii by a bulky 60 percent. By 2011, he believes PS3 will have shifted 71 million units, compared to an estimated 40 million units for Wii at the same stage.

Still, it's not all gloom and doom for Nintendo if Sakurai is to be believed - for a start, if his figures do turn out to be correct, it would still mean that Nintendo has made headway into Sony's lead from the current generation of machines. Sakurai also felt the unique appeal of the Wii was attracting game-makers, telling Businessweek that, "Software developers are increasingly interested in creating games for these Nintendo platforms." Nevertheless, his money appears to firmly on Sony's horse, as he rounded off by suggesting, "Hardcore gamers will probably prefer the raw power of PS3. And for all the positive vibes right now, the Wii isn't expected to outsell the PS3."

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71 Comments

KickyFunkFresh

4 years ago

"By 2001, he believes PS3 will have shifted 71 million units,"

Erm... >_>

?oe?oe

4 years ago

Has the PS2 sold 71 million yet? No.

Chris-Leigh

4 years ago

joejoe wrote

Has the PS2 sold 71 million yet? No.

Yes.

Chrono Blue

4 years ago

This sort of speculation is pointless. It's all mine is bigger than yours garbage. The market is plenty big enough for both machines to do well - which means there'll be plenty of games for us which is all that counts really.

?oe?oe

4 years ago

Chris-Leigh wrote

joejoe wrote

Has the PS2 sold 71 million yet? No.

Yes.

Really? I thought about 60 mil

Chris-Leigh

4 years ago

Well, it's SHIPPED 103m. And I can't quite see there being 32m still on shelves, soooo....

ugh the boot

4 years ago

Nintendo will probably be the one making the most money though.

Marka

4 years ago

I dont rally care, I paln to have both.

Rob_Jedi

4 years ago

I think almost every gamer plans to get a hardcore system and a Wii, be it Wii360 or the bankrupting PS3 and Wii combo. So if Wii is everyone's second console dosen't that mean they will be selling twice as many consoles as MS or Sony?

ultracrazy1

4 years ago

joejoe wrote

Has the PS2 sold 71 million yet? No.

LOL!

Has the gamecube sold 40 million yet? No.

David

4 years ago

Sounds like a reasonable analyst for once. He's not saying one or the other will fail.

Infested Jibbs

4 years ago

I'm sure back in the day i saw seomthing along the lines of 'PSP set to outsell DS by 60% ' as well.

These analysts don't know crap.

Only time will tell.

realitybites

4 years ago

Firstly no mention of MS. So the analyst believes XBox 360 is vaporware?

Secondly, I'm not convinced the general gaming public will be enamoured by the Wii controller. Developers showed strong support early for the GC and it didn't sell squat compared to its predecessors. Nintendo have historically supported its handhelds first through marketing/games and home console last if that attitude continues it will be the same debacle.

To be completely frank I'm not interested in Nintendo's Wii at all. Another Mario isn't getting me excited especially at previous generation graphics. Played with enough gimicks on the PS2 already (Singstar, Buzz, Eyetoy, Guncon).

I think the hi def graphics of the Xbox 360 and PS3 will over shadow any gimick Nintendo can throw up.

Sin Ogaris

4 years ago

It was a Japanese analyst, so yeah XBox 360 is vaporware.

As for the general public and Wii, people were clamouring around the Rayman Raving Rabbits video in EB, no one even looked at the Epic Demo video.

LeonJ

4 years ago

No doubt it will sell better once we get past this insane price ie few years time.

But I really think the Wii could be another DS story going nuts on the sales side. Ie DS vs PSP type of thing. Where both sell well, but the DS is really cracking because it delivers a different type of gaming cheap.

I care not, I can't live without any of the next gen consoles.

Nev

4 years ago

Analysts DO serve a purpose in the business world - it's just that the video games market is so danged unpredictable.

Look back at all the turnarounds there've been in the industry over the past few decades... The Genesis stealing a huge chunk of Nintendo's marketshare, the Playstation coming out of nowhere to crush both Sega and Nintendo, Sega dropping out of hardware and making games on Nintendo consoles, the DS shrugging off the onslaught of the PSP... Few people (if any) predicated any of that.

That last example is the perfect summary of the unpredictability of the games market - most people either expected the PSP to fail miserably, or stomp all over the DS. As it turns out, neither has been the case thus far, with the two handhelds performing well, with sale numbers within a few million units of each other or thereabouts - certainly a less substantial margin than the console market.

The same potential exists in the next-gen race. I can see the Wii becoming a huge success like the iPod, and completely monstering the more expensive and harder-to-develop-for PS3. But just as conceivable is that the Wii will be completley ignored by gamers and non-gamers alike, and sell worse than the GameCube. Or, as this analyst believes, it'll sell well, but not as well as the PS3. There's just no way to tell.

A lot of it rests of unknown factors on both sides - online services, pricing, both of hardware and downloadable content, full launch lists, marketing, etc.

If you offered me a hefty paycheque to come up with an educated guess as to which system would do better (as these analysts do), I would... but that'd be all it was - a GUESS.

The Brett

4 years ago

Fundamental analysis is an economic concept whereby deductions and extrapolations are made from past and present trends and figures. Given the level of unpredictability of the games industry, this further decreases the credibility of these reports. You cannot predict the future based on the past- just in the same way that because you toss 4 heads on a coin in a row, it doesn't make it any more likely you will get a head the next throw either.

Take the PSP for example- it was the perfect case of "how can they lose." It certainly hasn't had the level of impact most predicted. In the same way, you can't use the DS as an example for the Wii as a potential success. No doubt both systems will sell outrageously for the first year or so, but the REAL evidence will come after that as to who will win the race. It'll be up to Sony and Nintendo to ship as many unist as humanly possible in that initial period though.

mqphu1

4 years ago

I can see why MANY analyses are predicting the PS3 will be the eventual winner.
Sony PS3 is equipt with the latest technology and graphics.
They plan ahead unlike MS and Nintendo.
This means the PS3 lifespan is longer and better games.

If you compared the PSP and DS.
Again, IMO the PSP will eventually be the winner (as predicting by experts). Why?
Because Sony has many plans for it in coming years.
- Easy access download of updates, demos, video and audio.
- More games and Arcades games
- Location free player
- Conectivity the PS3
- and MORE

The ONLY barrier with the PS3 and PSP are the priceeeeeeeee.

Imagine the PS3 is $500 and PSP is $200 (possibility in 2009), it will sell like MADDDD.

ObsoletE

4 years ago

^ whatever Sony are paying you, they're getting their money's worth.

mqphu1

4 years ago

Obsolete,
It is easier to go with trend, since PSP ans PS3 are currently under attack.

The true is PS3 and PSP are much better.

Jellyfish

4 years ago

Swap those figures around and I'd believe it. I think the Wii will dominate the Japanese and possibly the Australian (we sure love those whacky games) markets.

The first wave of the PS3 juggernaught will sell out definately. But I'm thinking quite a few of those units will be defective due to the complexitivity of system and the extreme heat here. This will probably make the news considering the price of the console and reflect negatively on the console sales.

The Xbox 360 is also untested in our summer, but it seems like they're surviving the "Heat Wave" in North America and Europe.

mqphu1

4 years ago

You may like those "whacky" games, but the general public are currently like games from PS2 and will be on PS3. Such as Singstar, Eyetoy etc.
It has proven success.

Jellyfish

4 years ago

mqphu1 wrote

You may like those "whacky" games, but the general public are currently like games from PS2 and will be on PS3. Such as Singstar, Eyetoy etc.
It has proven success.

Err, think before posting please, Eyetoy, Singstar, Buzz and most DS games all fall under the "whacky" catorgory.

ObsoletE

4 years ago

mqphu1 wrote

Obsolete,
It is easier to go with trend, since PSP ans PS3 are currently under attack.

The true is PS3 and PSP are much better.

depends on your standpoint. from a purely technical POV, you're right, both machines are more powerful than their Nintendo counterparts, but from a gaming/fun POV, the DS is streets ahead of the PSP and neither the Wii nor PS3 has been tested.

i'm not attacking Sony, or either machine, i'm a big fan of their work, rather, i'm attacking your stance on something that is purely hypothetical at this stage. unless you have access to 1.21GW of energy.

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