E3 2006: Nintendo boss predicts Wii's sales

Wii News | How many will Nintendo have to make?

A strong performance at the press conference behind them, a controller almost everyone is excited about, and more then likely a price point of less then half Sony's PS3 (some are guessing a third!). Combine this with the totally unprecedented success of the DS, and Nintendo's fortunes for their home consoles are looking up. The reports from the E3 show floor suggest that patrons have flocked to the Wii section, and that even with a more then three hour wait it's by far the most popular attraction at the event.

But will this translate into console sales? Estimates at current sell through for this generation put the PS2 well ahead at 95 million consoles sold, compared to Nintendo's 22 Million Gamecubes (and Microsoft's 23 million Xboxes). Nintendo's userbase and market share in the home console arena have shrunk every generation since 70 odd million NES consoles were sold. Will the Wii continue down this path?

Nintendo president Saturu Iwata does not think so, and has predicted big gains for his company this generation. The numbers? Iwata predicts 40 to 60 million Wii consoles sold worldwide in the coming generation. What this shows us is that Nintendo doesn't seem directly interested in regaining a dominant position, but simply on improving their position. Of course, anything can happen. On one hand, at launch Nintendo predicted 40 million Gamecubes sold. On the other hand, Iwata said they'd be happy if 10% of gamers bought a DS, and yet it has become the fastest selling console in history, even beating out the Gameboy Advance for speed of sales.

Related Content

Wii almost UK's top seller
16 Aug, 2007 Gaining on 360 fast.

Nintendo unwilling to support Freeloader
09 Aug, 2007 It's unsupported. Sorry.

E3 2006: WiiConnect24 revealed
10 May, 2006 Nintendo Wii to 'never shut down.'

Page12 Next

32 Comments

EvilHayama

6 years ago

Quote

...and yet it has become the fastest selling console in history, even beating out the Gameboy Advance for speed of sales.

I swear, Sony, Nintendo and MS have all made this claim about one of their consoles! Peter Moore said it about the 360 in his speech on wednesday for sure, is everyone defining "console" differently? Or "fastest"? Or "in"?

David

6 years ago

EvilHayama wrote

Quote

...and yet it has become the fastest selling console in history, even beating out the Gameboy Advance for speed of sales.

'In' actually. Although 'console' was probably a qualified definition on MS's part.

No other console sold 16.5 million worldwide as fast as the DS has, and no other console has sold as many in it's first year. The 360 has only sold 3.2 million so far worldwide, and IMO you really can't claim anything about sales until something's been out for a year. And there's no way it wil have sold 12 million by October.

ZNMS

6 years ago

Over on the Joystiq web site, there's a rumor going round that the Nintendo Wii will cost approximately $249.

slasherD

6 years ago

Hopefully its an incorrect rumour.

I really can't see the non-gamer crowd that Nintendo seems so desperate to connect with shelling out that much for a console. Thats only US$50 less than a crippled 360! Personally I'm expecting US$199, but hoping for US$149.

Qbert

6 years ago

No way it'll launch at $149, perhaps $199, but that's still pushing it.

Speaking of enticing the non-gamer crowd, besides (possibly) Wii sports, I haven't really noticed anything to entice non gamers. No cooking games, brain training, nintendogs, music games etc. etc. What surprises does Nintendo have up their sleeve? There does seem to be a large range of mature titles (Red Steel, Project HAMMER, MP3 and Disaster: Day of Crisis) this time around though.

slasherD

6 years ago

Qbert wrote

No way it'll launch at $149, perhaps $199, but that's still pushing it.

I'm hoping nonetheless

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's an unreasonable price and it wouldn't stop me from getting one at launch. I just think that alot of people will see it running in stores next to a comparably priced 360 and consider it overpriced. Speaking of which, how the hell are Wii demos in shops going to work? Without that hands-on experience, the Wii could be a tough sell.

Qbert wrote

Speaking of enticing the non-gamer crowd, besides (possibly) Wii sports, I haven't really noticed anything to entice non gamers. No cooking games, brain training, nintendogs, music games etc. etc. What surprises does Nintendo have up their sleeve? There does seem to be a large range of mature titles (Red Steel, Project HAMMER, MP3 and Disaster: Day of Crisis) this time around though.

It will definitely be interesting to see what they come up with. Alot of the innovative stuff on the DS like nintendogs isn't going to work as well tethered to a TV. Sports games definitely seem like the only example at the moment - maybe there could be something like a fitness game?
Nintendo are still holding alot of things close to their chest - hopefully a more specific strategy for wooing non-gamers than "intuitive controls" is on of them.

MrAndyPuppy

6 years ago

David wrote

No other console sold 16.5 million worldwide as fast as the DS has, and no other console has sold as many in it's first year. The 360 has only sold 3.2 million so far worldwide, and IMO you really can't claim anything about sales until something's been out for a year. And there's no way it wil have sold 12 million by October.

I guess I (and maybe others) don't consider the DS (or the PSP) a console, in the same way as I don't consider the GBA, Game Gear or even game&watch consoles. They are handheld gaming/entertainment machines.

Infested Jibbs

6 years ago

But why not consider it a console?What makes a console, a console?The only difference is a separate, stand alone screen and power supplied by mains.And possibly a separate controller.

Does this mean if i have one of those travel pack gizmos that has a small lcd screen that attaches to the console and it comes with either a small battery pack or 12v adaptor, it is no longer a console?

admeister

6 years ago

Here's hoping for $199 US or less. That would be perfectly affordable for me, and is what I've been basing my saving up around. I'm also presuming that the games will cost $100 AUD.

Nev

6 years ago

"Does not include Kmart Tyre and Auto Service, cigarettes, gift vouchers or game consoles."

Yep, the DS is a console... I checked.

What I think is funny is that the DS is outselling the PSP at a margin of, like, 7-1 in Japan at the moment. But if the PSP is only a few million units behind in sales (quote from Nintendo), then doesn't that mean that the PSP must be outselling it in at least several other major territories?

At any rate, I think those who say that the Wii will do well because the DS Lite is doing well are comparing apples to oranges, and not just because of the differences between the portable and home console markets.

Case 1: The DS - following the hugely successful Gameboy Advance which held about 95% marketshare.

Case 2: The Wii - following the miserable sales of the GameCube, which held about 10% marketshare.

Any handheld system following the Gameboy Advance would have done well. Saying that the DS is doing well purely because it's "innovative," is stupid. It's doing well because it's a Nintendo handheld. If ANYTHING has changed with the advent of the innovative DS, it's that it's lost them about 40% of their marketshare.

Syb

6 years ago

[EDITED]

EvilHayama

6 years ago

Nev wrote

Any handheld system following the Gameboy Advance would have done well. Saying that the DS is doing well purely because it's "innovative," is stupid. It's doing well because it's a Nintendo handheld. If ANYTHING has changed with the advent of the innovative DS, it's that it's lost them about 40% of their marketshare.

I think you're simplifying here, if the DS sucked and had no decent games it wouldn't have sold well. And it didn't until nintendogs, mario kart and brain training came out. I'm not sure about the figures really, but I would guess that a lot of the PSP owners are people who wouldn't buy a DS anyway or that have both. This is the case in my experience anyway, so the PSP didn't suck away as much DS sales as it expanded the market.

The Wii has some casual games, trauma center and cooking mama I believe. Nothing like brain training or nintendogs yet though, and who knows what's there at launch.

David

6 years ago

Nev wrote

No, the only place the PSP is outselling the DS is the UK, and even then the DS still clings to a slight overall lead because it launched earlier. Everywhere else (including Australia) the DS is well ahead, and is constantly outselling the PSP on a week to week basis.

Basically, the DS is four million ahead in Japan, and about two million ahead in US+Europe+Australia.

Finally:

Quote

But if the PSP is only a few million units behind in sales

A few million is a lot only one year into a console's life! And as usual, Nintendo were being conservative - a reasonable estimate based on the figures we have is DS 16.5M and PSP 10.5 M.

Quote

At any rate, I think those who say that the Wii will do well because the DS Lite is doing well are comparing apples to oranges, and not just because of the differences between the portable and home console markets.

This is true.

Quote

Case 1: The DS - following the hugely successful Gameboy Advance which held about 95% marketshare.

Case 2: The Wii - following the miserable sales of the GameCube, which held about 10% marketshare.

This is also sort of true - except that Gamecube market share is 15%, and you ignore that Sony tried to leverage their PS2 success onto the PSP and that failed.

Quote

No, the DS is MORE successful then the GBA, it has sold through faster and is only selling faster every day. And between the DS and GBA (remember they still sell more GBAs then DS and PSP combined in the US) Nintendo still has over 80% marketshare based on sales and 95% marketshare based on userbase.

---------------------------------

Basically, everyone said Sony would own with the PSP, and instead they had their asses handed to them. The DS leads in every market, is only getting stronger while the PSP wilts, and with the Lite coming (and sony already working on PSP2 for next year, if the rumours are true) the war may end sooner rather then later.

realitybites

6 years ago

After rofl and wiping the tears from my eyes I want what Iwata is smoking.

Here is my prediction:

* Wii console flies out of the box at launch.
* Lots of Nintendo hoopla.
* Nintendo promises new Mario game and delays it 12 months (oh btw I just read that good timing

).
* Sales flag as consumers get feed up with Nintendo ****.
* Release Mario sales barely nudge.
* Sony hits sweet point on price and games quality. At this stage MS will be just consuming whatever it can and will depend on the big hits to improve sales.
* Four years into Wii and Nintendo either annoucnes a new home console or pulls out of the home market.

I work in a sales organisation and for the life of me I have never seen any company that slumps that bad in sales ever recover in a single generation.

Sales just don't magically appear and the Wii isn't a necessity or a fashion accessory like a mp3 player (iPod), mobile phone, etc.

Wii is a product competing aginst some goliaths in the industry in terms of mindshare and games.

Its relying on its franchises which have failed to fire on the GC.

The SNES generation don't want cutesy games they want Resident Evil, Halo, Fable, Final fantasy, MGS, GTA, etc. The SNES generation grew up and want to play more adult oriented games.

Nintendo still thinks everyone is 14 years old they aren't. If they are they buy the DS because guess what the games that applealed to 14 years old on the SNES and Megadrive are now ported to the DS.

DS sales have rocketed because its portable (go anywhere), its a good price point, games are quick and straight forward to play (Brain games, dog simulators).

Even the PSP sales are great but is there really any good games for it?

So what does that tell you about the hand held market vs. the home console market? You can't apply the rationale for one and give it to the other.

Mario platforming games now pale beside Jak&Daxter, Sly and Ratchet&Clank in terms of gameplay. So gamers don't need Mario for fun platforming.

It still has to convince people this Wii wand is a good idea.

Simply be astonished if it even sells 15 to 20 milion.

DancesInUnderwear

6 years ago

realitybites wrote

The SNES generation don't want cutesy games they want Resident Evil, Halo, Fable, Final fantasy, MGS, GTA, etc. The SNES generation grew up and want to play more adult oriented games.

Says who?

Andronicus

6 years ago

Yeah, what DIU said man... says who?

I'm a SNES generation person.
I'm a 21-year-old gamer.
I like "Super Mario" platformers, and I would like to see them continue to be developed and released because there hasn't been a bad one yet.

realitybites

6 years ago

DancesInUnderwear wrote

realitybites wrote

The SNES generation don't want cutesy games they want Resident Evil, Halo, Fable, Final fantasy, MGS, GTA, etc. The SNES generation grew up and want to play more adult oriented games.

Says who?

Go look up the sales figures for the products mentioned compare them to your Nintendo sales figures.

Look at the demographics who buy the DS.

No comparison.

ObsoletE

6 years ago

Nev wrote

"Does not include Kmart Tyre and Auto Service, cigarettes, gift vouchers or game consoles."

Yep, the DS is a console... I checked.

depends on where you go.

the PSP and DS weren't covered by this last time i went to a 15% off store-wide thing. it was just a pity there were no DS's instock.

Infested Jibbs

6 years ago

^You should be thankful they didn't.

Hold out for 3 weeks man, 3 weeks and you'll have a ds lite and prolly a ds lie+nsmb pack.

Btw your getting awfully close to the big 7 0 0 0, in case you didn't notice(yeah right).

ObsoletE

6 years ago

haha, nah i hadn't.

i'm kinda over postcounts now

pre-emptive thanks Jibbs.

there, it's over for another 2 months.

anyway, yeah i'm holding out, though i noticed last night in a few catalogues that the DS:Hevee is down to $160.

ZNMS

6 years ago

realitybites wrote

The SNES generation don't want cutesy games they want Resident Evil, Halo, Fable, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Grand Theft Auto, etc. The SNES generation has grown up and wants to play more adult oriented games.

Finally, someone agrees with me.

admeister

6 years ago

I agree with DIU and Andronicus, I'm a SNES generation gamer, and also want to see Mario platformers continue, as I enjoy them. You are generalising way too much. Mario wouldn't have lasted this long without people like us. I like all of Nintendo's stuff the best, but I do like some adult orientated games, that's what I bought a PS2 for/would buy a PS3 for, mostly.

Not that there aren't any of those on Nintendo consoles, they have made a bit of an effort, you know.

DancesInUnderwear

6 years ago

realitybites wrote

compare them to your Nintendo sales figures.

MY Nintendo? I own Nintendo? Awesome.

Hey, Masahiro Sakurai, put Tom Nook, Captain N and a giant radioactive beaver in Smash Bros.! And Shigeru Miyamoto, I want to be the star of the Mario Galaxy.

And now - free Wiis for everybody!