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Chris Leigh
01 Nov, 2006

Analyst: Wii must avoid becoming a fad

PALGN News | Success depends on more than just the Wii-mote.
Analyst David Cole of DFC Intelligence has warned Nintendo against defining its forthcoming Wii console solely by its unique controller. Writing in an article for Next-Gen.biz, Cole argued that Nintendo should be careful to not focus too heavily on the console's motion sensitive controller, suggesting that a switch to the new control methods offered by the Wii-mote could have an adverse effect on the Wii's commercial performance.

"From DFC Intelligence's perspective it would probably not be a good thing for Nintendo if the Wii is defined mainly by its controller," he said. "The risk is that consumers have fun with the Wii controller for a few months, but the fad passes and they move back to their tried-and-true gameplay methods on a competing system."

In fact, Cole goes on to suggest that following the model of the DS handheld would ultimately prove more successful for Nintendo. "We think that the Wii will probably be much more successful if the controller supplements existing game styles while adding some new innovations in gameplay," he writes. "The best example for this is Nintendo's own portable system, the DS. When it was first announced, the DS seemed like an odd duck with its two screens, a touch pad and stylus control. The idea of consumers controlling their portable system with a stylus seemed dubious. Now, after two years it is clear that the DS touch screen can add a great deal to some games while still playing the old-school portable games. If a user does not want to use the stylus they always have the option to use the old control system."

You can read the rest of the piece here, and it's well worth a skim. And don't forget to tell us what you think in the forums.

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36 Comments
5 years ago
Read this eariler on, what a crock. Comparing a dancing controller to the Wiimote is a bit far-fetched.
5 years ago
I 100% agree with the analyst. having tried the Wii at the Sydney event, I can clearly see where he's getting his theory from.
5 years ago
i agree with the sentiment somewhat, though it's worth noting that it applies across the board, not just to Nintendo.

peripheral games are usually big sellers, but usually also have a fairly limited lifespan, so hopefully Nintendo bring out enough differing support for the Wii-mote, and/or continue to keep the console fresh.

the way Nintendo handled the seemingly peripheral-based DS gives me a fair amount of optimism for the Wii, but it would be nice to see some more traditional games that don't rely on the Wii-mote to play.
5 years ago
Having played the Wii the other night I can honestly say that the control works, I mean it actually works, I still can’t believe it. This analyst may have a few points but this control will last and probably revolutionize other controllers, come December 7 history will change. Game makers will design the games specifically to work with this controller, Ubisoft has jumped the gun on everyone and got in first having something like 8 games ready for launch or there abouts(?)

The control is awesome, it’s on par with the mouse and even though I used it for under 2 hours I already could see it’s potential to be better. FPS will take on a whole new dimension, yes I really believe that and with Ubisoft in there first it can’t fail.(Rouge Spear anyone? takes me back) I was a massive doubter about all of this until I actually played it, now everything seems right, welcome to evolution.

It **** works!
5 years ago
^You sound paid.
5 years ago
Because he is disagreeing with you?
5 years ago
^No, because he has 1 post, and his post screams advertising and propaganda. I've no qualms with a disagreement, but when someone says "history will change for the best controller ever!" I can't help but feel the person is biased.
5 years ago
@Global:
the problem (imo) is not whether or not it "works" but rather that there is enough variety in the games for the Wii to keep people interested.

interactivity is all well and good, but there are sure to be times when i don't want to wave my arms about play a game.

i'm primarily a PC gamer, but even then there are times i don't feel like sitting at a desk to play something, i'd rather lie on my bed, or use a control pad. if the Wii relies on the Wiimote for everything, it might have the best games in the world, but if people don't feel like playing another sword-swinging game, then they'll turn it off in favour of another console (or load up older Gamecube software).

i can understand why Nintendo are focussing their efforts on getting the Wiimote functionality out there, but i'd love to see some coverage on the more traditional games that are in development too.

i think this is what the Analyst is referring to.
5 years ago
I rather think it's because of lines like this:
Global wrote
I was a massive doubter about all of this until I actually played it, now everything seems right, welcome to evolution.
*shrug*

Ever since a few games sites posted about 'plants' getting paid to work their way up in forums and lay down the company line it seems that anyone who signs up to a forum and posts about a console in a postivie light is accused.

Edit: Got in a little late with that one...
5 years ago
Obs: Which is where I personally feel that nintendo will ultimately fail, that is of course assuming they just keep creating games which use the full power of the Wii-Mote and such, and barely try to use the traditional control mechanism. It got old for me in an hour last night. But that's just me. And a few others.
5 years ago
I'm actually high but yea I did sound paid, you should have seen the people at Nintendo, now they were really paid. Anywho, I’m still shaking my head cause the controller actually works and everyone will find out soon enough I guess. All I can say is that it works, it’s something I want to master, just like I did with the mouse on certain FPSs.

The graphics looked fine to, I had my doubts about those, I never liked the smudgy effect the old Nintendo 64 had, or maybe it was just those hours of playing Goldeneye at my mates house dropping proxy mines everywhere and before falling asleep seeing visions of a man in a tuxedo standing on one leg sliding around a lightly blue and white coloured room with hints of yellow…...drugs? In any case I was impressed with what I seen and played at the Wii party that I won an invitation to.

Good times ahead.
5 years ago
Global wrote
Game makers will design the games specifically to work with this controller, Ubisoft has jumped the gun on everyone and got in first having something like 8 games ready for launch or there abouts(?)
Ubi have 8 launch window titles and 6 more by March (1 new exclusive IP). The problem is only at least 3/14 are made from the ground up (RS, Rayman and new IP), the other 11 are cheap ports that are dodgy in control. Splinter Cell is PS2 version in visuals, no Xbox visuals for Wii or even Wii graphics for Wii.

A lot of Wii games are dodgy and that will hurt Wii.
5 years ago
ObsoletE wrote
@Global:
the problem (imo) is not whether or not it "works" but rather that there is enough variety in the games for the Wii to keep people interested.

interactivity is all well and good, but there are sure to be times when i don't want to wave my arms about play a game.

i'm primarily a PC gamer, but even then there are times i don't feel like sitting at a desk to play something, i'd rather lie on my bed, or use a control pad. if the Wii relies on the Wiimote for everything, it might have the best games in the world, but if people don't feel like playing another sword-swinging game, then they'll turn it off in favour of another console (or load up older Gamecube software).
You don’t need to swing like a mad man, just subtle flicks with your wrists and it works beautifully.
5 years ago
It could succed, but the "classic" controller better be good and cheap, otherwise people who dont/didnt have a gamecube will get really pissed. im also not fully backed up on the classic controller, i have seen it, but not seen it in action but i assume it will essentially make the Wii-mote into a standard controller?
5 years ago
@ Global again:
fair enough, but the point is that i'm sure there are times when i don't want to flick my wrist to play a game, and i'm sure i won't be alone.

just like on the DS there are times i don't want to play a stylus-based game, but i'm able to skip that and play something like New Super Mario Brothers, or something.
5 years ago
1942veteran wrote
It could succed, but the "classic" controller better be good and cheap, otherwise people who dont/didnt have a gamecube will get really pissed. im also not fully backed up on the classic controller, i have seen it, but not seen it in action but i assume it will essentially make the Wii-mote into a standard controller?
Well turning it sideways sort of makes it into a standard controller but for an outright one I assume Nintendo will make one, I think I even saw a pic of one on the net. There wasn’t one at the party, just the control and nunchuck, I never used the nunchuck so I can’t wait to try that out. The controller is smaller than I thought it would be to, the whole system is tiny.

Just one thing, the control, it's like a mouse in 3D space, that's the best way to describe it.
5 years ago
Honestly that has been something I've been worried about too - whether companies will produce any decent games that are focused on (or offer as an alternative) the classic (or GCN) controller.
I suppose that is why we also get the Virtual Console and BC, so that people will always have a chance to play games that don't require the Wiimote.
5 years ago
ninty turning their back on 20 years of controller evolution is always going to be risky
5 years ago
crestfallen12 wrote
ninty turning their back on 20 years of controller evolution is always going to be risky
Not really, they've done it twice before. SNES games were not very playable on the N64 controller, and N64 games were not directly playable on a Gamecube controller. It's always been Nintendo's 'thing' in terms of controllers to say 'stuff the past, it's all about the future', it's just a little more dramatic this time.

I'm sick of analysis stating the obvious, and just repeating what was discussed months ago on forums. At least financial analysts have something to say based on money, but guys like this just say things 'based on a hunch' or how they feel or think, seemingly without any evidence, and often are behind on information and discussion.

None of us, or this guy, have any idea what will happen. Nobody in the whole world expected the DS to be as huge as it it, a large majority expected it to fail miserably. But now it's the fastest selling game machine in history, and if it keeps on the same track for 3 more years will easily pass the PS2 and even the original Gameboy for sales.

We don't know jack about the future. Moron overpaid analysts don't know jack about the future. Anything can happen, end of story.
5 years ago
there's evolution, and then there's revolution.

evolution is usually risk-free, revolution isn't.

i think the control stick/nub was a fairly tame evolution in the grand scheme of things. the Wii-mote is a huge risk, if it weren't for the fact that Nintendo are very well off financially from the last few generations and the handheld market, i'd say potentially company destroyingly risky.

then again, i can't see how the "standard" control-pad could evolve any further. (something i probably said in the time of the SNES control-pad too, and look what happened.)

like you say, we have no idea what will happen, so there's 30-odd of us here who'll buy it, if no one else does, then Nintendo are setting themselves up to be royally screwed.

never underestimate the stupidity of people.

the novelty side alone will probably be enough to ensure that Nintendo do well initially with the sales, but the longevity of the Wii will be determined by variety. (again, something shared by all companies. if all the Xbox 360 games were Halo clones, i'd imagine that would simmer out pretty quickly too.)

i wish someone was paying me to say what pretty much everyone who cares already thinks.
5 years ago
If it has games that play well and have long playabilty then how can it become a fad unless people get tired of the control scheme, which seems all covered anyway.

As long as they create interesting games and keep re-inventing ways the controls can be used then it is pretty much fad free.
5 years ago
Karai Pantsu wrote
whether companies will produce any decent games that are focused on (or offer as an alternative) the classic (or GCN) controller.


I agree with this analyst 100%. I mean, alot of people compare the Wii to the DS, but one of the great things about the DS is the fact it handles 'classic' games so well - for all of the titles like Ouendan, Trauma Centrs, Kirby Canvas Curse, etc, theres titles like New SMB, Mario Kart, Castlevania, etc. This is what needs to happen with the Wii, but the fact that Nintendo didn't pack a classic controller in with the console makes me think its not going to happen all that often. However, perhaps when Smash Bros. launches at sells well (basically inevitable if it keeps up the high production values of Melee, particularly as its supposed to be online), companies might realise theres nothing wrong with classic controls. Of course, can we wait that long? Or will the Wii suffer in the meantime?
5 years ago
The article is spot on and I believe the reporter gets it smack in the middle.

Nintendo really have to sell this to the public (not just Ninty fanatics). Fad or disinterest will put that graph on market share in even more precarious position.

I'm certainly going down to have a play at Carindale (Qld) when the Wii band wagon comes through I want to see first hand whether this is a great gimmick (ala Buzz controllers) or truly a control mechanism that will create a revolution in gaming.

I absolutely agree we will not know how the three strategies from Sony, MS and Nintendo will be perceived until at least Xmas 2007. DS got Nintendogs and Brain Training which sparked the massive interest in the console. They just need a similar spark on the Wii. And its not Zelda. Zelda is for hard core Nintendo fans.
5 years ago
Lets just hope that M$ and Sony don't come out with blatant rip offs of the wiimote-nunchuck combo.That'd hurt ninty. :'(

The Microsoft/Sony swinga-magig icon_lol_old.gif
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