Analyst: PlayStation 3 to lead next gen by end of 2007

PALGN News | PALGN: Analysts still overpaid for random musings by end of 2007

Ah, market analysts. What would video game news posters do without them? At the start of each generation they seem to randomly predict years of market activity, and once a victor is clear they charge subscribers $10,000 a pop to hear the obvious stated. This time, Japanese research outfit Enterbrain (who also publishes Japan's #1 gaming magazine Famitsu) has predicted that Sony's upcoming PlayStation 3 console will lead the worldwide console race by the end of 2007, despite not even being on sale in Europe and Australia until next March.

The PS3 will be released late November in Japan and the US in what is expected to be extremely limited quantity, and within a few weeks Nintendo's upcoming Wii will have been released in all major territories with plentiful supply, and so market consensus is that in the short term the Wii will vastly outsell the PS3, simply due to availability. Yet Enterbrain believes that it will be close even in the short term, and predicts totals of 5.47 million for the Wii and 4.13 million units for the PS3 by March 2007. They then predict the PS3 will see a price cut and easily eclipse the Wii by the end of 2007, and will reach the critical 10 million mark first. After the PS3 has 'walked over' the Wii, it will be in a reasonable position to tackle Microsoft's Xbox 360.

Meanwhile, Enterbrain predict strong sales for the Xbox 360 in the US and Europe, and think it will reach 17.46 million units sold by the end of 2007.

This news is especially strange, since only a few weeks ago Enterbrain published the results of a survey they carried out in Japan, in which 88% of respondents said they expected the Wii to vastly outsell the PS3 for the December-January holidays. Perhaps Enterbrain knows something the public does not?

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21 Comments

Rob_Jedi

5 years ago

Well the PS3 will definately be sold out everywhere, all 6 consoles any store gets, that's the same as selling millions of Wiis right

I do kinda wonder how many people will fork over full retail for the PS3, especially since you need a brand new HD TV to get any big impact out of it, oh and some expensive HD cables also sold seperately.

Infested Jibbs

5 years ago

I swear this story('analyst says sun shines out of ps3's ass') is regurtiated every month.

troublemaker

5 years ago

Not sure why the article says this ...

Quote

This news is especially strange, since only a few weeks ago Enterbrain published the results of a survey they carried out in Japan, in which 88% of respondents said they expected the Wii to outsell the PS3 for the December-January holidays.

As it matches what they are saying now ie. ...

Quote

Yet Enterbrain believes that it will be close even in the short term, and predicts totals of 5.47 million for the Wii and 4.13 million units for the PS3 by March 2007.

In the end I think 'market analysts' rank up there with economists and meteorolists in terms of their accuracy of predictions.[/quote]

GroovySamurai

5 years ago

The reason why the PS2 was so succesfull is only because it had all the respect it gained from the PS1. I have a feeling the Xbox fan base is a little larger now and the Xbox 360 being out for longer means that there will be a bigger ammount of games. Im betting the 360 will be the leader this time.

troublemaker

5 years ago

I'm pretty sure that on a world wide basis there are only slightly more XBox owners than there are GC owners. I think GC+XBox = 30%, PS2 = 70% of this gen console sales.

edit:

Quote

However, as of February 2005, estimates show the Xbox's share of the worldwide console market is ahead of the Nintendo GameCube and behind the PlayStation 2. Microsoft has sold 24 million consoles as of Q2 2006. Although ahead of the GameCube's 21 million [8], this is far behind the PlayStation 2's 106.23 million shipped [9].

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox#Market_share

edit2:
Australia has one of the largest % of XBox ownerships anyhere in the world, so we get a distorted view of it popularity IMO

MIkes

5 years ago

Ganon wrote

The reason why the PS2 was so succesfull is only because it had all the respect it gained from the PS1.

I think that may be oversimplifying a little.

It would be a reason, but it was also out before the Xbox, had a wider range of games (plus PS1 games) could play DVDs out of the box without the controler and was cheaper - or at least it was in the UK, I'm not certaina about here.

Plus it had the lions share of floor space in the UK. I worked for Game and Sony basically 'bought' the front of each Game store in the UK for PS2 hardware and software, so it would be the first thing a punter saw when they walked into the shop.

The playingfield's changed since then. This time around the situation is nearly reversed for Sony and Microsoft. Although I don't know if Sony will come out 'ahead' of MC or Nintendo, if they do I don't think it will be by a clear marging.

TBH, i think the best thing they could do right now is do a Nintendo and link the PSP up to the PS3 somehow.

ObsoletE

5 years ago

are article blurbs eligible for POTM nominations?

troublemaker

5 years ago

MIkes wrote

TBH, i think the best thing they could do right now is do a Nintendo and link the PSP up to the PS3 somehow.

Already done ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ps3#PlayStation_Portable_Connectivity

MIkes

5 years ago

I stand corrected and i should also work for Sony

David

5 years ago

ObsoletE wrote

are article blurbs eligible for POTM nominations?

Glad someone liked it!

Frozencry

5 years ago

Studies have shown that 99% of Studies are bulls**t.

ugh the boot

5 years ago

^ So i take it that particular study was in that rare 1%?

Frozencry

5 years ago

^pretty much.

Zarnoss

5 years ago

http://www.macworld.com/news/2006/05/02/pornhd/index.php?lsrc=mwrss

Seems like the porn industry dictates the format wars.
Beta was the superior format but because the porn industry backed VHS it won.

Porn makes the world go around.

Frozencry

5 years ago

^Yeah I've read about that. If porn supports your side, then you're in for one victorious climax at the end of the war (pun intended).

Spanca

5 years ago

Will it be that big of a factor this time? Citing Betamax vs VHS as an example isn't that accurate as digital distribution of porn was nothing like what it is today. Back then I'm sure tapes were a huge part of the porn industry's sales, but is it the same these days? I could be wrong, but I really doubt it's as influential as being suggested.

Zarnoss

5 years ago

Yeah spanca true dat!!
With internet these days there is porn in abundance.
Where as back in the day all they had was vid tapes.

Will be interesting to see how it all pans out.
Why can't the 2 just get along?
Why does one have to wipe out the other?

Oh that's right....huge corporate money.

Frozencry

5 years ago

^even if Internet pornography has taken alot of the sales, there are millions of people who buy porn on dvd and such. I have a friend..very into porn...MANY dvds.
The US especially buys alot of it. So personally I see the porn industry being a major catalyst in determining the victor between BluRay and HD-DVD.

Ellegarden

5 years ago

Ganon wrote

The reason why the PS2 was so succesfull is only because it had all the respect it gained from the PS1.

I got ps2 because of software, thinking about it I dont think I dont know anyone with gamecube (exception of me) and a few friends and family with an xbox, rest are people with ps2. I still get people suprised at how good dreamcast and the graphics and games were.

Infested Jibbs

5 years ago

Frozencry wrote

^even if Internet pornography has taken alot of the sales, there are millions of people who buy porn on dvd and such. I have a friend..very into porn...MANY dvds.

If you want people to think it's not you, it's customary to say 'a friend of a friend'

Frozencry

5 years ago

^LOL, I'm serious though, he lives in New Zealand, owns like an entire collection.

Don't look at me like that! xD

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